Sunday, July 29, 2018

Metrorail up in flames

Cape Town’s rail public transport is literally going up in flames. For the second Saturday in a row, in the historic heart of Cape Town, billowing clouds of tar-black smoke have marred the otherwise clear blue winter sky. The source: arson attacks on passenger trains at Cape Town Station. This latest fire marks the sixth act of arson on Cape Town’s Metrorail system in the six weeks, and the third event in the past week.

The impact of the fire damage has been tremendous. Dozens of railcars, tens of millions of Rands of damage, and a 30%+ reduction in passengers over the past year, which will create even more issues for the struggling parastatal agency. Metrorail’s failure will also have a huge impact on the City’s long-term plans to address important issues of congestion, climate change, and economic activity. Earlier this year, the City came out with a Municipal Spatial Planning Framework whose long-term vision was premised on a functional rail system. While some questioned why the City would plan around a rail system that has long operated inadequately, I agree with the City that any long-term vision must be built around the rail system. It is an asset too valuable to discard, particularly in light of the imperative to move towards public transport and away from private automobiles.

There are a number of theories regarding who is behind the attacks. One, promoted by the civic organization #UniteBehind, is that elements within Metrorail itself are trying to destabilize the organization in order to enable continued corruption within the organization. Another is that the minibus taxi organizations, many of whom at times have used mafia-like strongarm tactics to maintain their economic power, are seeking a competitive advantage. It is hard for me to not look towards the minibus taxi organizations, which are well-placed to benefit from a hamstrung rail network, the only effective alternative for many people commuting from the township areas to the economic centers of Cape Town.

Arson isn’t Metrorail’s only problem, with vandalism and theft also having a big impact on operations. However, the acts of arson, I would argue, are in a different category. While there may be an economic motivation for them, and a desire to sabotage Metrorail, these acts seem more akin to terrorism. The symbolism of huge black smoke clouds emanating from Cape Town Station, for the City’s political and economic elite to see, seems intended to elicit a sense of fear, a threat, an assertion of power and control.

In addition to horror, I watched these clouds from my balcony this Saturday with a great sense of sadness. The people who are hurt most by this are marginalized, hardworking people who can least afford it. Whatever shortsighted goals this machiavellian act will achieve, it will almost surely also deepen the entrenched economically and racially based transportation segregation in Cape Town, which in turn will make it even harder to move towards an environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable future. One can only hope this may instead serve as the nadir for rail in Cape Town, and galvanize reform and support for this much-needed service.

Monday, July 2, 2018

Let’s Make Cape Town’s Current Water Restrictions Permanent

The skies have opened over Cape Town and the rest of the Western Cape during the past few weeks, providing much needed relief from the ongoing severe drought the region has faced over the last several years. Lush green fields and forests and streaming waterfalls off of Table Mountain signal a return to rainfall patterns that are more normal for this time of year. This month’s rains have catapulted dam levels to over 42% capacity, higher than this time last year and 2016, although still far below recent historical levels.

The auspicious weather has resulted in the hopeful, if guarded, pronouncement by the City of Cape Town’s Deputy Mayor Ian Neilson that ‘Day Zero’ will likely be avoided in both 2018 and 2019. This is assuming, however, that the rains continue and that existing water restriction levels are maintained.

The City’s current water restrictions are, by many standards, exceptional within a modern developed context. For residential households, whose usage constitutes up to 70 percent of the City’s overall usage, these restrictions mean limiting daily consumption to 50 litres of water per person per day. While the City’s population has yet to achieve this goal, it has consistently come close over the past calendar year, halving domestic water consumption compared to before the drought. For the sake of comparison, in the wake of California’s own historic drought a few years ago, Californians’ daily consumption in 2017 averaged between 272-363 litres, roughly five times that of Capetonians.

Notwithstanding the recovering dam levels and Capetonians’ heroic conservation measures, short-term projections and long-term scientific forecasts indicate that returning to previous water consumption levels would likely imperil Cape Town’s water security. Even under current consumption levels, improbably high sustained rainfall would be needed over the next year in order to erase the impact of the recent drought. Capetonian poet and water writer Helen Moffett writes that expecting this amount of rain would be “like rolling the dice, coming up with six, and assuming that the next eleven times it rolls, it's going to come up six again.” Yet some observers expect only an averagely wet winter, meaning the odds look even worse for gambling that this will be an exceptional year. More likely, it will take years of “average” rainfall to return to normal dam levels. In the longer term, the climatologists forecast a 2-17 percent reduction in annual run-off by 2050, meaning that the Western Cape could see a reduction in daily yield of 160 million litres, the equivalent to roughly one quarter to one third of daily output today.

With these predictions of the future, and with the experience and knowledge that the past six months of drought restrictions have brought, why not take the bold move to establish the current restrictions as the new normal? The restrictions, along with an impressive citywide advertising campaign, have helped bring about behavioural changes in the way individuals and households manage water, changes that could be reinforced by making the current expectations permanent.

The City and Provincial governments may risk losing these water conservation gains based on near-term policy decisions. A return to more lenient water restriction levels will undoubtedly lower expectations about conservation and lead to increased consumption. On the other hand, continuing to justify the current restrictions as part of an emergency response to the unprecedented drought may fatigue citizens as they tire of maintaining a perpetual sense of urgency about water resources. Now is the time for the government to pivot from framing the current restrictions as extraordinary to establishing them as the expected baseline. Re-writing the water regulations to require current conservation efforts as the new normal will help to do this.

Obviously some of the current 6b restrictions would have to be adjusted in order to allow for responsible activities once the immediate severity of the drought has been overcome. The City has already shown its ability to adapt its regulatory approach in response to lessons learned during this drought. In addition, adoption of regulations is not sufficient; enforcement, publicity and investment must follow, while the government must also prioritize improving water access to those communities who lack it. However, now is the time to take the momentum that has propelled the City to the forefront of water conservation stewardship and leverage it to establish a new standard for water responsibility.

Monday, June 4, 2018

Designs for peri-urban agricultural settlements

A few weeks ago I was inspired to draw up some spatial designs related to my work with the PHA Food and Farming Campaign (see my previous post for background on the Campaign). This occurred while listening to a landless farmer at a Campaign meeting as she related that people in her community wanted to know for who or what we were protecting the Philippi Horticultural Area. Her concern about potential confusion over ultimate goals of the Campaign prompted me to want to depict one of the Campaign’s primary proposals, which is providing smallholding farms to black landless farmers in the area.

As a basis for investigation I took a roughly 75 hectare area in the southwest corner of the PHA (previously approved for suburban development) and drew what the farms/homes/erfs might look like from several different scales and perspectives, using the existing physical context, the Campaign’s proposal criteria, and a few guiding spatial principles (derived from permaculture and urban/rural development design sources).

This sort of exercise is a really useful process to evaluate certain spatial design proposals and to convey a vision. There are a lot of assumptions built in here that others in the Campaign will have to evaluate and critique, but to me it seems important to be able to start articulating some of the discussed counter-proposals to suburban sprawl, both to test the ideas and to (hopefully!) provide inspiration. Obviously there is a long way to go, but you have to start somewhere!

Friday, May 4, 2018

New PHA Study - Salvation or Political Cover?

It has the best agricultural conditions within 120 km of Cape Town, but it isn’t the vineyards of Constantia or Somerset West. It contains fragments of some of the most critically endangered natural habitat in the region, but it isn’t found at the peaks of Table Mountain National Park. It holds among the best, most stable supply of usable water in the metropolitan area, but it isn’t Silvermine Dam or Newlands Springs. It is the southern portion of Cape Town’s Philippi Horticultural Area (“PHA”), and, unlike these other iconic features of Cape Town, it is the site for proposed and approved developments that would destroy these unique qualities.

That’s what the Western Province Department of Agriculture’s newest study focusing on the PHA confirmed last week. And while it’s findings reflect these key insights, the conclusions and strategy proposed going forward fails to advocate for full protection of this area. Instead, the study defers to land use decisions made by the City of Cape Town to allow redevelopment of nearly a third of this land into suburban development.

The study highlights the PHA’s unique importance as an agricultural and natural oasis within the metropolitan area of the Cape Town. With respect to agriculture, the area’s unique combination of climate, water and soil make it ideal for farming. The area also sits on top of the thickest and deepest part of the Cape Flats Aquifer, which holds billions of litres of water and has largely been untapped.

Within the PHA, the southernmost portion, which abuts the community of Strandfontein Village and False Bay, is the best of the best in terms of agricultural, natural, and water resources. According to the study, the southern PHA contains the best aquifer recharge areas in the City. That is also where the last remaining fragments of the intricate dune system that once covered most of the Cape Flats remain. The study finds that the dune thicket flora located in this area helps provide “an ecological link within the Cape Flats District.”

The study flags that the City’s land use decisions, particularly the approval of two major development applications in the south, has destabilised the policy certainty around the area. The Oaklands City development, which encompasses 470 hectares in the southeast PHA and has been fully approved by the City, and the UVest development in the southeast PHA, reflect the attractiveness of the PHA for greenfield urban development. The fact that the City rezoned the area to benefit these developments indicates that it is trailing developers, rather than leading development decisions in the City. Changes to the City’s spatial planning documents in 2011 and 2014 carved out large chunks of the PHA exactly where these developments were to take place. The City’s most recent Metropolitan Spatial Development Framework reflects this course of action, designating these areas as “urban development” rather than “high potential and unique agricultural land” as is the case with the rest of the PHA.

Given the study’s findings regarding the agricultural, environmental, and socio-economic importance of the PHA, and particularly the southern portion under threat of development, it is unsurprising that its findings conflict with the urban development activity occurring in this area. The study notes that “[t]he southern portion of the PHA has the highest agricultural potential and its loss to non-agricultural-related development is of serious concern and is not supported by the findings of this Study.” Regarding future plans for the city that focus urban development in areas other than the PHA, the study registers its “strong concern over planned private sector development in the southern portion of the PHA as they appear to fall outside of the City’s spatial investment targets and are located far from any planned public transport infrastructure.”

And yet, notwithstanding the contradiction between the study’s findings and the City’s conduct with respect to the southern PHA, the study incoherently states that “[t]he protection of the PHA for horticultural and sand mining purposes is consistent with the spatial development plans of the CCT and the WCG.” How is the City’s decision to allow suburban development of a third of the PHA, and its most agriculturally valuable portion, consistent with the study’s findings?

In public presentations, the Province and its consultants have argued that nothing can be done with respect to developments in the south that have already been approved. As a result, they contend that this area is already, unfortunately, lost. DA Provincial MPP and standing committee chairperson on economic opportunity and agriculture Beverley Shafer, commenting on the Oaklands City development, contended that nothing could be done in a “free market” to stop these developments once approval had been given, and inferred that to suggest otherwise would be to advocate authoritarianism.

This argument reflects the government’s abdication of its regulatory role in urban development for the benefit of its citizens, a core element of its mandate. The City’s poor planning and land use management decisions in the past with respect to the PHA does not mean it or the Province must stay the course. Land use and zoning re-designations, such as overlay zones protecting existing undeveloped land, are one viable option. Another would be conditions on provision of infrastructure, which will inevitably burden the City’s taxpayers significantly if development proceeds.

The City and Province would like you to believe that their hands are tied with respect to protecting and preserving the PHA’s most valuable lands. By stating that the City’s reprehensible conduct is consistent with protection of the PHA, the Province’s study provides cover for the City to continue down the wrong course.

The Province is still accepting comments for the next week, so leave a comment and let them know what you think. And feel free to read my comments to them.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

More on Cape Town's Aquifers

Last week published another article of mine on the Cape Town water situation. This time I focused on the city’s plan to tap the region’s aquifers. Here I’d like to add to and expand upon a couple of points I make in that article:

Not all aquifers are created equal
The Western Cape’s TMG Aquifer is a generally deep and slower recharge aquifer charged from precipitation caught primarily in the area’s mountain regions. These mountains therefore serve both as a sort of net for catching moister brought in from the ocean and as aquifer recharge areas.

In contrast, the low-lying coastal areas around Cape Town contain shallower aquifers that generally recharge more quickly. These areas were historically covered in sand dune formations over the soft Malmesbury shale layer. Nebo, the scientist from CSIR who I reference in the article, estimates that water travels at a pace of around one to two hundred meters per year in the Atlantis Aquifer recharge area. While these aquifers are very complex and variable, it seems reasonable to estimate the same rate in the Cape Flats Aquifer. (Please note that I don’t profess to be a hydrologist, geologist, or any other sort of professional scientist. This is from the literature I’ve read, which I encourage you to read as well if you are interested.)

Incredible biodiversity, unknown impacts
Just to add some numbers, the Cape floristic region, which includes Cape Town and much of the rest of the Western Cape, has the highest concentration of diverse plant species in the world, with seventy percent of an estimated 9500 plant species found only there. That’s why in 2004, in order to protect this unique diversity, some of the remaining natural areas within the Western Cape were designated a Unesco World Heritage site.

The impact of aquifer extraction on this biodiversity is not well understood. Speaking to a local news outlet, University of Cape Town Associate Professor Edmund February cautioned: “I really worry about just tapping into [the aquifer] and drawing down on [it] without actually understanding what the ecological reserve is necessary to maintain those unique species that are sitting on those wetlands.” His university colleague Adam West, agreed, also noting that drilling construction and operation could also have unknown impacts on affected areas. Last month, West and several other scientists submitted a letter to local Western Cape governments voicing these concerns. Jasper Slingsby has a great quote in his GroundUp article from February. “In short,” Slingsby writes, “this is taking the very same water that replenishes our water supply system, feeds groundwater, supports biodiversity in the catchments and supplies the rivers that feed towns and farm dams.” Slingsby argues City’s plan to drill for water in these areas is effectively “cancelling the insurance policy we need since rainfall is predicted to become ever less certain.”

Atlantis could show Cape Town the way
Atlantis’ managed aquifer recharge program, which was born out of a need to serve the water needs of a remote apartheid-era settlement, has provided the City of Cape Town with an ideal template for recycling Cape Town’s water on a larger scale. An isolated near-coastal community with a population of around seventy thousand, Atlantis has benefited from one of the oldest MAR systems on the continent. For over 40 years, Atlantis residents have largely depended on effluent and stormwater that is treated, filtered, and recycled through its shallow aquifer to supply it with potable water.

The regional drought has brought renewed interest in Atlantis’s system as a model for larger-scale extraction for the greater metropolitan area. While lack of investment over the years meant that the Atlantis system’s efficiency had been on the decline, the current drought has provided the City with the impetus to restore its capacity. “The drought actually woke us up,” Atlantis’s wastewater treatment plant manager John Charles notes. Currently one hundred percent of Atlantis’s water needs, around 15 megalitres per day, are being met through its MAR system.

Like many others, I’m concerned about the idea of putting wastewater down into the aquifers. However, in the Cape Flats I’ve come to believe it is not just workable but probably necessary. Given the level of pollution that is already occurring in the Cape Flats aquifer, shifting towards use of this water will work to focus attention on stopping this pollution. The amount of water Cape Town discharges into the ocean is incredible, and should be reused. The Cape Flats aquifer is the only place where we are going to be able to recycle this water on the level that we need. It’s also a much better option than desalination or tapping the TMG aquifer. Granted, the best option by far is to become much more efficient with the water that we use, and better management of the riverine system. A sustainable MAR in the Cape Flats area would be a perfect complement to these actions.